Who is winning here?

With the last week of the by-election in progress, each of the parties is keen to suggest that they will be the likely victor come Thursday.

Labour claim a swing to them from the Conservatives in a Council by-election in Hounslow yesterday. Only marred by the slight nuisance that the Conservatives won, and Labour lost a Council seat to the Liberal Democrats in neighbouring Haverstock in Camden.

The Liberal Democrats add to their momentum claim with the suggestion in the Times that “two senior Conservatives… do not think they can win”.

The Conservatives meanwhile, not to be outdone claim two more Labour defectors in their news in brief, and make the claim that in the bookies have “put the Liberal Democrats firmly in third place pushing them completely out of the race”.

Interesting claim, I went on to Betfair to check this:

betfair-odds.jpg

Third was correct, completely out of the race though seems a bit of a stretch given the difference between their positions is neglible, with Labour ahead. In fact given Labour start with a 24% lead, what the betting seems to say is it’s extremely close.

So everything to play for in the next five days, and I’ve got to make my own mind up soon as well.

UPDATED: Alan (comment 1) is quite right there is a dispute between Labour and the Conservatives about the quality of the latest defection claim, given the two individuals were once Labour Councillors, but were then expelled from Labour for running as independents in Hounslow, see here.

3 Comments »

  1. Alan said

    I’ve read elsewhere that the two “Labour defectors” are people who had stood against Labour and already been kicked out of Labour. That doesn’t sound like a proper defection to me!

  2. Alan said

    I seem to be turning into your most loyal commenter, but if you aren’t watching Sky News, you really must. Tony Lit gave £4,800 to Labour just before he became the Tory candidate – imagine!!

  3. Chris Paul said

    The true order of events seems to be:

    – Under a cloud as sitting LP councillors (planning issues?)
    – Not re-selected to fight in 2006
    – Stood instead for community party founded by NF “total democracy” activist
    – 4th and 5th in 3-seat race
    – Chucked out
    – Don’t even have vote in Southall
    – Incorrectly claimed as defectors when would be swing voters is more accurate

    My exclusive has more than the Guardian link you have posted. There is also an interesting photo and links here.

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