Ealing Southall Watch

Labour have won the Ealing Southall by-election with a reduced majority. The Liberal Democrats were in second, with a net 5% swing from Labour, and the Conservatives came third, their result largely unchanged from last time. Minor candidates all lost their deposits.

Ealing Southall results: from the BBC

Virendra Sharma (Lab) 15,188 (41.48%, -7.28%)
Nigel Bakhai (LD) 10,118 (27.63%, +3.19%)
Tony Lit (C) 8,230 (22.48%, +0.91%)
Sarah Edwards (Green) 1,135 (3.10%, -1.52%)
Salvinder Dhillon (Respect) 588 (1.61%)
Dr Kunnathur Rajan (UKIP) 285 (0.78%)
Yaqub Masih (Ch P) 280 (0.76%)
Jasdev Rai (Ind) 275 (0.75%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 188 (0.51%)
Sati Chaggar (Eng Dem) 152 (0.42%)
Gulbash Singh (Ind) 92 (0.25%)
Kuldeep Grewal (Ind) 87 (0.24%)

Lab maj 5,070 (13.85%) 5.24% swing Lab to Lib Dems

A result that broadly reflects Tuesday’s prediction although I believe most observers expected a slightly smaller majority. I suspect a short campaign and the Conservative performance explains much of that. Until Tony Lit was exposed as a Labour donor, it seems likely they were advancing. That story put that in reverse with the Liberal Democrats taking over the mantle as official opposition, but not soon enough to make it close.

It’s be both fun and exhausting monitoring this by-election. I have to say, given some quite late nights on this, it impresses me deeply how many people write blogs daily for months at a time, not just a few weeks. This blog won’t be continuing, but I may consider another in future, that is when my other half starts speaking to me again. 

Congratulations and thank-you to all the candidates and volunteers who have put your time into our area, congratulations again to Virendra Sharma MP for winning, Nigel Bakhai for advancing and Tony Lit for being interesting.

This is Ealing Southall Watch, watching you, watching us, signing off…

Having almost tripped over another pile of cheery early morning leaflets on my way to vote this morning I almost voted for one of the unlikely suspects.

 However in the end I went for…

… and with the votes currently being counted… I wish them luck…

In just over 24 hours we should know who our new MP will be.

The Conservative and Labour websites haven’t put any new stories today. The Liberal Democrats have four, most notably that they’ve called the Police to investigate the theft of their stake-boards (troubling, on the other hand I have just acquired a smashing new orange table to prop up my monitor). Other stories re-iterate previous themes.

A quick trawl around around the blogs mentioning Ealing shows a few people preparing to come to Ealing to campaign/annoy us all day tomorrow. Also some attempts to predict the result, here, here and here. The Times also have a good round-up of the day’s street campaigning here.

Overall I get a sense of campaign weariness and people looking forward to the result.

I’m certainly more than a little curious. 

However, voting tomorrow morning, congratulating the winner tomorrow night, and then… we’re done.

We’re in the last 2 days of the Ealing Southall by-election, and it will soon be decision time. The three major party campaigns all seem fairly orientated towards bashing each other over minutiae as the seconds tick away, but I’m guessing at this stage most minds will have been made up.

My own prediction, is not very brave, I think it’ll be either Labour or the Liberal Democrats on Thursday.

Conservative Tony Lit is probably the most interesting candidate, but not necessarily for the right reasons. As noted earlier this week I think the Labour donor story will probably have done for his chances by crippling his narrative as the alternative to Labour and making him seem light-weight.  

If he doesn’t win though he should keep trying. If he spends the next 1-2 years until the General Election with his sleeves rolled up, looking less like a media tycoon being gifted a seat through daddy’s business contacts, and more like a campaigner who really wants to work across all communities, he will do much do dismiss perceptions of his superficiality and opportunism. He could be good representative one day, I’m not sure about now.

Labour I always thought would play a safe, low-key campaign and that seems to be what has happened. They have done the least visible campaigning of the three parties, but then can afford to lose a lot of votes without losing the seat. If they hold, the General Election is not a forgone conclusion, but it will simply be one seat in six-hundred, not the focus of national media excitement; so much more difficult for a challenger.

The candidate, Virendra Sharma, I suspect disappointed a lot of Labour supporters. I’m certainly under-whelmed rather than enthused or hostile. He’s not obviously a hero or villain, or obviously that different from his predecessor, but that’s part of his problem. Piara Khabra, it was suggested by the press, wanted a young Asian woman to succeed him, to change the politics of this community. The offer instead is more of the same, which highlights the alternatives and youth offered by both opponents.

There’s also the whiff of sectarianism around his nomination and subsequent defections, although that may have been inevitable whomever Labour selected. It can’t though have been helpful to Labour to be seen as divided. His vote will surely be less than Piara Khabra’s, the only question is by how much.

The Liberal Democrat campaign has had the most activity and variety of all three, perhaps too much variety and too little focus at times. However they do seem to have won the battle to be crowned chief challengers after Tony Lit’s wobble at the weekend.

Nigel Bakhai also has something of the ‘safety-choice’ air about him. While both the Conservative and Labour candidates have been personally attacked as liabilities (mostly by each other), Nigel Bakhai seems to have been relatively controversy-free. That may be a strong card if people vote for the candidate with the least mud stuck to them.

The question now though is whether that amounts to enough to overtake Labour as well as the Conservatives.

I’m still mostly undecided as to which way I’m going to jump on Thursday, I voted Labour last time, Conservative in the locals and GLA (not a Ken fan), and Liberal Democrat for the European Parliament. 

The greatest pity I think, will be whoever I do vote for will not be my MP next time regardless of whether they win. My house will be in Ealing Central and Acton at the  next election.

More literature today when I got in from work, no time to read in detail though as bit of a late one, and the words are all starting to merge together. Conservative one is A4 and dismisses the Liberal Democrats, the Labour one is A5 and slags off the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats have sent a newspaper that has a large tabloid headline focused on the suggestion that the Conservatives admit they can’t win and that bar chart again, possibly with more languages on it than last time…  but my eyes grow bleary.

Online, in ‘breaking news’ on the Conservative website we learn that, if elected, Tony Lit will fight “tooth and nail” against Labour’s proposed tram. I’m not entirely sure this counts as news given it’s one of his campaign pledges, but it does bring to mind an troubling image of my Conservatives Councillors trying to stop a moving tram with their teeth… and some nails.

On the nails theme (rusty this time) the Labour website informs us, perhaps prematurely that the “Tory Campaign Collapses”, with a sequence of somewhat catty remarks about a David Cameron hosting a cocktail party for Tony Lit. Presumably this party was cheaper for Tony than his last dinner engagement. Not a lot of news about Virendra Sharma, which I assume is why the snazzy Google Map on the home page doesn’t seem to have been updated since the campaign began, unless you count the removal of five of the Councillor flags.

The Liberal Democrats inform us, unremarkably that their leader Menzies Campbell  is backing “Bakhai to the finish”. They are though wooing me with their  “five steps to a safer Britain” including the appealing idea of making prisoners work to pay for a victims of crime fund. They also like nurses, I like nurses, I feel happy. They don’t like developers in Hanwell Lock, I don’t like the developers either, I feel cross. 

With that emotional maelstrom whirling through my mind I’m off to bed, good night candidates, good luck on Thursday…

I’m tempted to stop reading leaflets now, a snow plough may well be needed to clear my porch for the next few days. My brief observations today is that all three main parties now seem to be deploying those annoying megaphone cars, the Conservatives seem to be winning the poster war in the shops and the Liberal Democrats have more on the streets (or at least near me they do). Very attractive addition to the gnomes those large orange squares on sticks.

So have they all annoyed me enough to vote for one of the long-shots?

I’ve had three communications from wildcards, Respect, UKIP and the Greens.

Respect have a beaming picture of George Galloway, sans-catsuit inviting me to vote for Salvinder Dhillon who says “No to war, no to privatisation and yes to public services”, and invites me to put “people before profits”. He also support better pay for postal workers, but only it would seem if they are a member of the CWU Union, which alarms me a little. What about non-unionised posties George, are they to expunged in the revolution?

UKIP candidate Dr. K. T. Rajan wants a referendum on the European Union, and doesn’t seem to like immigrants very much, who are apparently “the biggest problem facing Britain”. An interesting message to send to the multi-cultural residents of Southall. I suspect Dr. Rajan may not be taking this election too seriously.

The Green’s candidate Sarah Edwards wants to “work for social justice and a better environment”, this presumably to distinguish her from all the candidates campaigning for unfairness and raping the planet. It’s a dinky little leaflet on cheap paper, with some appealing points, but it’s a bit generic, nothing here that really suggests the candidate knows Southall.

So much to consider…

Conservative candidate Tony Lit is in a great deal of trouble. It appears, according to the Telegraph and Labour campaign organiser Tom Watson, that just one week before agreeing to be David Cameron’s candidate, he attended a Labour party fundraiser (photo above) where his company, Sunrise Radio made a £4,800 donation.

His excuse, we can assume, is that there is that his political activities as a representative of his former business are a different matter to his personal decisions.

On that note his statement to the Telegraph says “As a businessman, I did indeed attend this event for the Asian business community but, like many British Asians, I feel the Labour Government does not have the answers to the challenges that face the country.”

But the timing is terrible, and rather highlights just how rapidly the Conservatives picked their candidate, causing much complaint from their own side and a defection of a local party member to the Liberal Democrats.

The other thing it highlights, which is not good for David Cameron is just how superficial his project is proving to be if Tony Lit, Blair-donor one week, Cameron-candidate the next, is his chosen representative of what he wants to change in his own party. It takes the whole ‘heir to Blair’ line to an embarrassing extreme.

It’s also not obviously smart for Labour to have highlighted this. The public could well read this as confirmation of the Liberal Democrat message of ‘vote conservative, get labour’. If there is an anti-Labour majority in Ealing the splitting of that opposition vote is Labour’s best chance of holding the seat.

This event though should polarise it. Certainly the odds I just checked on Betfair (after yesterday’s story) have shifted with the Conservatives in third on 4.4 and Liberal Democrats second on 3.6, Labour unchanged. That looks like the start of momentum to me and what Labour don’t want is a clear anti-Labour opponent to emerge in the next four days.

This could be the story that decides the outcome on Thursday.

With the last week of the by-election in progress, each of the parties is keen to suggest that they will be the likely victor come Thursday.

Labour claim a swing to them from the Conservatives in a Council by-election in Hounslow yesterday. Only marred by the slight nuisance that the Conservatives won, and Labour lost a Council seat to the Liberal Democrats in neighbouring Haverstock in Camden.

The Liberal Democrats add to their momentum claim with the suggestion in the Times that “two senior Conservatives… do not think they can win”.

The Conservatives meanwhile, not to be outdone claim two more Labour defectors in their news in brief, and make the claim that in the bookies have “put the Liberal Democrats firmly in third place pushing them completely out of the race”.

Interesting claim, I went on to Betfair to check this:

Third was correct, completely out of the race though seems a bit of a stretch given the difference between their positions is neglible, with Labour ahead. In fact given Labour start with a 24% lead, what the betting seems to say is it’s extremely close.

So everything to play for in the next five days, and I’ve got to make my own mind up soon as well.

UPDATED: Alan (comment 1) is quite right there is a dispute between Labour and the Conservatives about the quality of the latest defection claim, given the two individuals were once Labour Councillors, but were then expelled from Labour for running as independents in Hounslow, see here.

The Liberal Democrats love my letterbox, I have two leaflets from them today. One on slightly glossy A3 papers is about the NHS and makes some pointed remarks about the Conservative record on the NHS and suggests their candidate Tony Lit doesn’t use it, which I suppose is possible. Certainly on an unkind reading of Tony’s latest news story which seems to make a visit to Ealing Hospital sound quite an unfamiliar outing for him.

My uncle is a doctor and is constantly moaning about the way the NHS has changed in recent years, and pretty much most of the years before that, working for the NHS is clearly not good for your health.  

The other is a folded A4 asking whether or not my “Post Office is on Labour’s secret hit list?”. It invites me to fill in a petition against Post Office closures. Unfortunately Post Offices don’t play any great role in my life beyond buying stamps and getting annoyed about standing in long queues to post parcels, but then come to think about it maybe there’s a reason for those long queues, maybe I will sign it.

The Conservatives have also sent me a newsletter, which I’m afraid is more about David Cameron wanting me to vote for Tony Lit, and less about why I’d want to vote for either of them.

There is some substance on the Conservative opposition to the West London tram, which the Liberal Democrats also oppose. It’s not though an issue that gets me very excited either way, although the Liberal Democrats have caught Mr. Sharma being a naughty boy in voting for it and then appearing to say otherwise. He also seems to have forgotten about the tram in a visit by Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly here. Oddly she came to listen to Ealing’s commuters but no one mentioned the tram…

For tramophobes though there is a good long list of the arguments against here. If it seems like a long rant to you, or rather sequence of very detailed mini-ones, then you may gather why I’m not dwelling much on the issue on this blog. Life is too short.

On the subject of long rants there’s a ‘have your say’ on the Labour party website, which has some corkers including what appears to be a complete history of Sikh sectarian struggles. Well worth a visit if you have a spare lifetime or two.

A second comment from Liberal Democrat candidate Nigel Bakhai has put me in my place on whether or not a focus on the very local, matters for our MP. Still no blog-comment love from Tony Lit or Virendra Sharma.

He writes:

“E-mail : nigel@ealinglibdems.org.uk
URL    : http://www.ealinglibdems.org.uk
Comment:
I think it is for the public to judge what an MP should do – MPs are after all there to work on our behalf.

In my experience people do want MPs who deal with the big issues of policy and are interested in international matters, but they also want MPs who will take up the very local matters in their own street too – as do I, which is why that’s the combination I’m standing on. With me people will get an MP who wants to improve our local health services, bring British troops home from Iraq soon and who will also continue to campaign on the very local issues of dumped rubbish, graffiti grot spots etc.

We will see next week what my neighbours think of that combination!”

I stand correct, unless he doesn’t win of course… by way of compensation Nigel you may enjoy this random Liberal Democrat poster that appears to have made it’s way briefly into Virendra Sharma’s campaign video on YouTube.

It’s quite a fun video, shortly after this flyby, we see Mr. Sharma walking with some men banging drums while on his mobile phone. We can only imagine the conversation:”What…! hello…! no, you’ll have to speak up Gordon…! yes I’m Ealing…! road-works… no…! it’s my band… we’re on the next season of Britain’s Got Talent…! what do you mean the last seaon got won by a Liberal Democrat Councillor… bad line… bye Gordon…!”

He then gives a short, comptent speech, marred slightly by nervously clutching his own postcards and occasionally inadvertently picking the nose of his own photo. Cleaning up parts of Ealing the Liberal Democrats cannot reach perhaps…

The Liberal Democrats have gone a bit frantic in their desire to win the Internet campaign. I’ve had to wade through a bunch of press releases on their site today. Quality not quantity people, please!

Nigel Bakhai apparently is launching a “massive clean-up campaign”, this presumably to complement the “massive response” to his previous survey. In it he lists various problems that could apply to anywhere such as “litter, grafitti, broken pavements and dangerous potholes”, and has a nice picture of him sitting next to a load of cardboard boxes in a car park that could be outside any supermarket.

The next big story is about fly-posting on Lady Margaret Road… 

Another on rat problems caused by dumping

Another on flooding in Lammas Park… another about more fly-tipping…

It’s all a bit ‘local Councillor’…. which is fine, but we’re electing the MP on the 19th, not Ealing Council. If my MP is busy agonising about every crisp packet blowing down Ealing Broadway, then I have my doubts about whether they are spending enough time looking at government legislation.

In fairness there is also a story about helping a local school by liaising between the Council and government and a natty online health survey. But then if you’re going to put the word ‘Focus’ on every leaflet you’re putting through my door, then please… show some.

A bit of a coup for Liberal Democrat blogger Mark Pack who has exposed Conservative MP Grant Shapps, the Conservative party’s campaign organiser in Ealing Southall, and apparent web guru for attempting to pose as a Liberal Democrat activist when commenting on a blog. Unfortunately for the web-whizz he was logged into his You Tube account when making the post, so it appeared under his own name. Full analysis here.

This left him making the rather damaging comment that “realistically we’re not going to win” in his own name, which no doubt will soon be appearing on Liberal Democrat and Labour leaflets soon.

However later today a rather dubious denial appeared on Iain Dale’s blog which suggests that his account was hacked due to a easily accessible password of “1234”, which has now been changed. There are though now several dozen muggers in Ealing all looking out for Mr. Shapps who reckon they’ve a fair bet on guessing his PIN number should they secure his bank card.

Accusations are flying between the Conservative and Labour camps today over whether or not a sixth Labour Councillor, Zahida Abbas Noori had defected or not.

Outrageous lies according to Labour HQ, the fastest double-rat in history according to Conservative blogger Iain Dale. Neither side though comes out of the incident/non incident (take your pick) looking good.

Something though is clearly going very wrong in respect of unity in the local Labour party, so bad that they’ve had to issue a statement headlined “Sikh community unites behind Labour candidate”.  

On one happy note though the Conservative-run Ealing Council hasn’t yet noticed the shift of allegiance of at least five of Labour’s Councillors. This must be the much trumpeted improvement in efficiency that forms a cornerstone of the Conservative campaign. Either that or Council Officers are very foresighted as they’ll all be back next week.

Late blogging tonight, having being mildly distracted by filling in a Liberal Democrat survey on local health issues. Although given this blog, I’m not sure who at their campaign HQ might be reading my response. 

The big story of the day was the defection of five Labour Councillors to the Conservatives, including the formerly ambitious rival to Virenda Sharma, Gucharan Singh. I have to say on the surface it smacks a little of sour grapes and sectarianism. Singh and friends are Sikh, Sharma is a Hindu, both are large minority communities in Southall.

It’s not clear to me what policy matters encouraged this Damscene conversion, largely because the five Councillors don’t mention any, other than being mildly impressed with the way the Conservatives are running the Council. Either way though it’s good news for the Tory campaign and bad news for Labour.

 The Liberal Democrat take on the matter is that both sides ‘are in chaos’, although it’s unclear if their claim about a former Conservative independent candidate Gulbash Singh running is still correct, given the Conservatives are claiming he has dropped his own bid to back Tony Lit.

The Liberal Democrats also feel the momentum is still with them after claiming some of their ‘best canvassing for a decade’, whatever that means in substance. Still the election is proving to be far from dull!

I have a Labour leaflet at last which contains the message that Virenda Sharma is “Strong, local and on your side”. I don’t know, I reckon I could have him in an arm-wrestling contest whichever side of the table he sat.

Otherwise it’s a largely positive leaflet, with lots of stuff about Labour’s record in government and Virenda Sharma’s record locally as a councillor.

It’s not though very exciting. My heart momentarily fluttered when I read it was printed and published by Ken Clark, but I suspect this is not the former Conservative Chancellor. It’s a very safe campaign, but that might be Virenda Sharma’s edge against the Conservative glitz and Liberal Democrat youthful alternative if people don’t want a change.

There’s also a nice post here about one Labour activist’s experience campaigning over the weekend

Click here

It’s musical chairs in the defections sweepstakes. Hot on the heels of a Conservative party defection to the Liberal Democrats, there have been two Labour defections to the Conservatives.

The Conservatives also have a new video up, although again very little in it from the Candidate Tony Lit, who has a slight stammer half-way through a simple invitation to other Conservatives to help with his campaign. There are also more stats about the record of the local Council, rather than what he’s going to do as an MP.

I’m also not sure how wise it was to show a high-speed tracking-shot through a largely empty office, cutting to an almost all-white campaign team treating themselves to a buffet as the frame for evidence of local support and activity. The two individuals earlier in the video who enact comedy-sprints to get out of shot are far more dynamic!

There is a suggestion (unconfirmed) on another Liberal Democrat blog that a Sunrise Radio Presenter Yaqub Masih and General Secretary of the UK Asian Christian Fellowship, will be running against his recent MD, Tony Lit, as a candidate for the little-known Christian Party. Perhaps to protest about the state of the building where they both used to work?

Elsewhere on the web Mr. Masih is described as “an advisor to the Bishop of Wakefield” with links to the diocese of Faisalabad, Pakistan”. He engages in outreach work in both the UK and Pakistan, and highlights in particularly the difficulties faced by Christians in that country.

Although those difficulties may not be helped by such innovations as a Jesus Telephone Line for Pakistan and actively trying to convert Muslims on a UK forum. Also his multi-faith credentials might be tested by wading into a possibly sectarian by-election campaign as an explicitly Christian candidate.

Still Mr. Lit will need more than the Christian Sunrise vote to win the seat so I suspect Conservative strategists are not worring yet.

 UPDATED: Now confirmed

I see Liberal Democrat candidate Nigel Bakhai, has commented on this blog and also that of another local blogger. Kudos for geek-skills Nigel, has anyone seen anything on their blog from Tony Lit or less plausibly Virendra Sharma?

On the ground they have a news story about their Leader Menzies Campbell visiting a local Gurdwara, although it’s quite hard to tell that from the photo, unless Campbell was cocooned in vortex of vast orange placards as a spiritual tribute. Note to Tony Lit not to develop placard envy at this point…

I’ve also seen a lot of suspicious pale yellow bags in the last 24 hours with slogans on inviting me to ‘Park’ (thank-you we already have controlled parking) and to ‘Achieve the Extraordinary’, which may be a similar invitation to the streets that do not.

My latest Lib Dem newspaper has a front-page devoted to Iraq, similar to page two of the last one just a couple of days ago and I picked up a soggy leaflet in the street that seems to suggest they have the backing of the Muslim Public Affairs Committee (MPACUK) on this issue. I’m going to say that Iraq isn’t going to swing my vote in this election, but it’s a very clever strategy for this seat where we have a large Muslim community. 

I’m also finding LibDemBlogs an invaluable indicator of the mood in the Lib Dem camp. Assuming all the posts are genuine there seem to be a fair number of activists coming in from around the country also spotting some of the things I’m commenting on here. Their mood is upbeat which may suggest, given problems in the other camps, that they have momentum at this stage.

A good selection here, here, here, here, and here, where a particular suggestion has prompted some activity from Labour at last, who at least are getting properly furious in the comments section, if not near my letterbox.

There’s a  Google map on the Southall Labour website which looks quite funky. Only problem is I can’t work out what it’s for or what it’s trying to say. Each of the red flags is where Labour have a Councillor and contact details, rather than evidence of any activity.

The single yellow flag links to a petition about installing knife detectors in schools “to discourage knife-carrying amongst youths”. An idea that has something to do with Ken Livingstone. Interesting question but I’m not sure why the flag points into the railway line near Southall station? There was a stabbing incident in nearby Merrick Road recently, but this was a youth centre not a school.

 If the problem is youths drinking and fighting outside schools would metal detectors and the staff needed to police them within the school necessarily be the best way to tackle the problem? Have the Labour campaigners looked at alternative solutions for the same cost?